Grossmann, Igor; Rotella, Amanda; Hutcherson, Cendri A.; Sharpinskyi, Konstantyn; Varnum, Michael E. W.; Achter, Sebastian; Dhami, Mandeep K.; Guo, Xinqi Evie; Kara-Yakoubian, Mane; Mandel, David R.; Raes, Louis; Tay, Louis; Vie, Aymeric; Wagner, Lisa; Adamkovic, Matus; Arami, Arash; Arriaga, Patrícia; Bandara, Kasun; Baník, Gabriel; Bartoš, František; Baskin, Ernest; Bergmeir, Christoph; Białek, Michał; Børsting, Caroline K.; Browne, Dillon T.; Caruso, Eugene M.; Chen, Rong; Chie, Bin-Tzong; Chopik, William J.; Collins, Robert N.; Cong, Chin Wen; Conway, Lucian G.; Davis, Matthew; Day, Martin V.; Dhaliwal, Nathan A.; Durham, Justin D.; Dziekan, Martyna; Elbaek, Christian T.; Shuman, Eric; Fabrykant, Marharyta; Firat, Mustafa; Fong, Geoffrey T.; Frimer, Jeremy A.; Gallegos, Jonathan M.; Goldberg, Simon B.; Gollwitzer, Anton; Goyal, Julia; Graf-Vlachy, Lorenz; Gronlund, Scott D.; Hafenbrädl, Sebastian; Hartanto, Andree; Hirshberg, Matthew J.; Hornsey, Matthew J.; Howe, Piers D. L.; Izadi, Anoosha; Jaeger, Bastian; Kačmár, Pavol; Kim, Yeun Joon; Krenzler, Ruslan; Lannin, Daniel G.; Lin, Hung-Wen; Lou, Nigel Mantou; Lua, Verity Y. Q.; Lukaszewski, Aaron W.; Ly, Albert L.; Madan, Christopher R.; Maier, Maximilian; Majeed, Nadyanna M.; March, David S.; Marsh, Abigail A.; Misiak, Michal; Myrseth, Kristian Ove R.; Napan, Jaime M.; Nicholas, Jonathan; Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos; O, Jiaqing; Otterbring, Tobias; Paruzel-Czachura, Mariola; Pauer, Shiva; Protzko, John; Raffaelli, Quentin; Ropovik, Ivan; Ross, Robert M.; Roth, Yefim; Røysamb, Espen; Schnabel, Landon; Schütz, Astrid; Seifert, Matthias; Sevincer, A.T.; Sherman, Garrick T.; Simonsson, Otto; Sung, Ming-Chien; Tai, Chung-Ching; Talhelm, Thomas; Teachman, Bethany A.; Tetlock, Philip E.; Thomakos, Dimitrios; Tse, Dwight C. K.; Twardus, Oliver J.; Tybur, Joshua M.; Ungar, Lyle; Vandermeulen, Daan; Vaughan Williams, Leighton; Vosgerichian, Hrag A.; Wang, Qi; Wang, Ke; Whiting, Mark E.; Wollbrant, Conny E.; Yang, Tao; Yogeeswaran, Kumar; Yoon, Sangsuk; Alves, Ventura R.; Andrews-Hanna, Jessica R.; Bloom, Paul A.; Boyles, Anthony; Charis, Loo; Choi, Mingyeong; Darling-Hammond, Sean; Ferguson, Z.E.; Kaiser, Cheryl R.; Karg, Simon T.; Ortega, Alberto López; Mahoney, Lori; Marsh, Melvin S.; Martinie, Marcellin F. R. C.; Michaels, Eli K.; Millroth, Philip; Naqvi, Jeanean B.; Ng, Weiting; Rutledge, Robb B.; Slattery, Peter; Smiley, Adam H.; Strijbis, Oliver; Sznycer, Daniel; Tsukayama, Eli; van Loon, Austin; Voelkel, Jan G.; Wienk, Margaux N. A.; Wilkening, Tom (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2023)
How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change ...